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The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

机译:中纬度风暴轨迹对炎热,寒冷,干燥和潮湿的极端情况的影响

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摘要

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia.
机译:中纬度环流的变化会严重影响极端天气事件的数量和强度。尤其是,高振幅准平稳行星波与地表长时间的极端天气有关。相比之下,尽管已经探测到并预测了21世纪的快速变化天气尺度波及其变化对热和冷极端的直接影响,但仍缺乏分析。在这里,我们在月网格观测数据中应用天气活动与地表温度和降水的回归分析。我们表明,在中纬度大陆地区的大部分地区,夏季酷热与低风暴径活动有关。在冬季,寒冷天气的发生与北美东部,欧洲以及中亚至东亚部分地区风暴潮活动低有关。因此,风暴路径对大陆温度有一定的影响。明显的风暴轨迹活动有利于全年的每月极端降雨,而干旱季节缺乏降水。趋势分析显示,近几十年来区域发生了重大变化,这有利于美国东部地区发生寒冷天气,加利福尼亚州干旱以及欧亚大陆的极端高温。

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